When it comes to developing predictive capacity and growing confidence that a state of affairs will occur again, a number of factors come into play. These factors include: independently verifying sources, conducting a sufficient number of iterations of experimentation and observation, evaluating the normality of the evidence, reducing the number of confounding factors, and ensuring the consistency of relevant factors between experiments.
By acting in these ways, we can build up a picture of how a relationship is likely to occur again in the future, even as conditions change and evolve over time. This can require a careful and systematic approach, as well as a commitment to ongoing refinement and improvement, in order to achieve high degree of justified confidence and accuracy.
This process is essentially what science is, however all cognitively advanced organisms on Earth, and humans in particular, constantly and intuitively build predictive models to make sense of and act within the world. It can be easy to take for granted, and then feel like because we predict so many things in our daily lives, that we can extend that to other anything, without recognizing and accepting our limitations. The structure of formal science allows us to overcome some of those limitations.Â
The distinction between direct vs systemic causation is related, including how we often avoid complex causation when we are not being conscious of our predictive limitations.